In your face "Black Swan"!

DjPe5h Tue, 12/22/2015 - 10:03

by Bill Holter

What happened last Wednesday deserves another look because I believe it marked a huge pivot point and very few are even talking about it. Last Wednesday the Fed raised rates one quarter of a point but that was not the big story. The big story was the about face the U.S. did geopolitically!

We saw markets around the world convulse on Thursday and Friday. All attention has focused on the Fed rate hike which no doubt was a contributor. How wise was it for the Fed to tighten credit conditions on a system already struggling and burdened with debt? There is no arguing we have systemically moved from the 2008 crisis which is now widely understood as a “credit event”, into an even more highly levered situation. The recovery that never was is now met with a central bank’s policy error.

I believe the “tell” on Friday was a weak dollar. Much of what happened in the markets could have been expected as reaction to the Fed tightening credit conditions …but not a weak dollar. The meeting between Mr. Lavrov, Mr. Putin and John Kerry far overrides anything the Fed could have done or said in my opinion. The foreign policy about face where Mr. Assad no longer “needs to go” and Turkey being ordered to withdraw troops from northern Iraq was astonishing! These statements were followed by Mr. Putin establishing a no fly zone over northern Syria. In another twist, Turkey still maintains Mr. Assad must go and they are refusing to withdraw troops from Iraq (link is external). When in your lifetime have you ever seen anything like this? An “ally”, ANY ALLY publicly denying U.S. will? We all saw an IN YOUR FACE BLACK SWAN but few have recognized it yet!

We have no idea what was “told” to Mr. Kerry, we do however know he was “TOLD” something and in no uncertain terms. As you know, I have been in the camp thinking Mr. Putin (supported by China) would drop some sort of “truth bomb”. I originally thought this truth bomb would have at least some ties to 911 because the outrage this would create amongst the U.S. population. No doubt it would create a stir but I’m afraid we are just to dumbed down to really even care anymore. After pondering this further it occurred to me I have missed the obvious. What is the ONLY thing the U.S. has left and the final pillar of support? What is the Achilles heel? The dollar and the ability to issue endless debt!

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to spend another $1,000,000,000,000.00 or In Harvard education units, which is around $200,000 for four years, approximately 5,000,000 educations; we could educate 1.5 percent of the population. 

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