First Hand Iowa Caucus Account - This Is Our Moment Of Truth!
Alright folks, I wanted to get this out the moment we finished the initial count at my precinct. I hope you read this and take to heart what I am trying to convey. This could be a glorious moment for liberty movement or the moment this whole thing falls apart and we go back into the wilderness. The choice is largely up to us.
With that said, this is my 3rd rodeo. I've spoken 3 times for Paul. I have traveled 3 times to Iowa, not as a resident but a tireless supporter of the message. To say that we had an uphill battle this year is an understatement. The media has effectively outsmarted us. We have been effectively diverted and duped into submission. I can back this up with evidence from tonights caucus proceedings and the testimony from other precinct speakers I had the pleasure of CELEBRATING with tonight.
This caucus was very different from ones past. As a liberty supporter I have never won a caucus that I have attended. In fact. The most I've probably ever gotten was last cycle with 15 but we still came in 3rd or 4th. My first time we had 2 out of 100 people vote for Ron. Tonight 1 person out of 107 supported Rand at my caucus. There was no vote rigging or any of the sort of excuses we make for ourselves which ultimately makes people not want to ever participate again. This was real. On average you expect 20-50% of caucus people to be undecided. No one wanted literature at our caucus, blew my mind. Everyone seemed to have their minds made up before they came.
Trump Supporters
I have never seen anything like this. People showing up to register as Republicans for the first time probably ever just to vote for Trump. They ran out of registration forms. This seems to be a good thing no, wrong! I would say that 40% of the attendees were Trump people. These 40% also wanted to jet as soon as they checked the box for Trump. They could careless about the process. I had one guy not even stay for the beginning of the caucus. He handed me a ballot and said "can I go". I said that isn't how it works, this is a meeting, there is business, there are people who need to speak, this is a process. He said "fine" handed me his ballot and walked out, he didn't even care that his ballot may not be counted! Many Trump people were former Democrats. It was frightening to think that these people would decide who our next President would be. The Mike Huckabee supporter who spoke spent his time warning of people who wanted a King to run the country just like Barack Obama has. "This isn't who we are!" A Vietnam Vet spoke for Trump, he was the second person to speak. This only happened because no one knew who he was supporting when he came up. He cried for a couple minutes before he was able to say something. He then attacked our foreign policy and said that only Trump could save us from this mess. Even in our caucus Trump got double the time of any other candidate to speak.
The Final Vote
Virtually every candidate had a speaker, which never happens. In the end Rand got 1 vote. Ironically it was a vote coming from the Caucus Chairman who led the meeting. Trump won with 41 votes, Cruz had 20-30, Carson 18, even Rubio and Kasich had significant support with 8 and 6 respectively. Rand came in 8th. It bothers me that so many young people were caucusing for Rubio. They even used his slogan in their speech, "New American Century". Then all the Trump people exited the building. Within 5 minutes there were only 30 people left in the building waiting to know what the vote count was. People didn't even stay to find out who won! This was unreal. All the party business was next conducted with a small group of party faithful, maybe 15. Our Rand guy got both delegate and central committee chair of which there were 8 and 3 spots open respectively. The rest of the spots were taken by a Fiorina supporter, a couple Trump supporters, some Cruz people, and maybe someone from the Santorum and Huckabee campaigns. Many were freaking out that Trump won. This does not bode well for him as these delegates go to Convention.
Talking to speakers tonight at our after party they repeated this narrative, some had better results but all had secured top leadership positions.
Good News For People Who Love Bad News
1. So what is my takeaway? One thing I want to make clear. The Liberty Movement might have once again lost the popular vote. Who would have thought that the top 3 finishers would receive close to as many votes individually as the top 3 winners of Iowa in 2012? Turnout was not our friend tonight. However the experience of our people on the ground is uncanny. We are young and seasoned. Many were resolved to take control once again of the party in Iowa and have been selected to advance.
2. Cruz won! This works for a few reasons. He seems to be the natural winner of Iowa if recent history is our guide. The establishment hates him, some more than Trump. Cruz has no pathway in New Hampshire and it could get worse if he doesn't win in South Carolina. As for Trump he almost lost to Rubio which would put him in 3rd. Rubio outperformed expectation. At this point, the entire narrative of the Trump campaign falls into question. He is now a loser, not a winner. The polls were wrong. He could realistically lose in New Hampshire. I predict that even now he is contemplating whether to continue in this unless he is truly controlled opposition. His huge ego is telling him to move along even though he had a historic vote count. We can expect Huckabee, Santorum, and Fiorina to drop out very soon. The top 5 still have a shot but I think even Carson after all the ups and downs of his efforts decides that he's had enough. Where is he going to win next? Rand still has significant support in New Hampshire, Nevada, and maybe Colorado before it becomes impossible to prove he is a contender. After tonight a 5th place was expected for those paying attention, over performing for media talking heads, but for the campaign it is up to them to see this as conquering a major hurdle.
3. Is Rand recast as the rational choice before Rubio makes that case? Rubio is officially the most dangerous person running. Jeb got destroyed. Rubio could win New Hampshire if the establishment gets together around him. Expect this to happen! I saw a tweet by a Koch brother faithful last night in support of Rubio. This tells me that he is about to get a whole lot of money coming his way and could win NH and SC. People at my precinct caucus laughed when the speaker came up and no one came up to stand behind him. "Is there any Jeb Bush supporters who want to stand with the speaker?". *crickets*. How does Jeb even get in a debate at this point. Rand now stands with 5 other legitimate vote getters on the debate stage. How do they black him out now unless they do top 3 or base the debate on more NH polls. My expectation is Carson will drop out very soon. Rand must stand firm even if it hurts for the sake of liberty and the fight we've waged in the last decade. We must all stand with him! The media is about to turn on Trump and ask him the classic questions that Ron Paul used to get asked. "Will you run 3rd party?", "When are you dropping out?" on and on. If Rubio doesn't secure the nomination that means that the party might resort to getting rid of the new rules at Convention to allow him a chance. This could be the point that once again we attempt to make a stink. Time will tell.
This ends only if we say it does. Will you stand with me in campaigning for liberty? Will you continue to stand with Rand? I hope we can all agree that this fight matters no matter how grim it may seem right now.