Rand Paul is About to Shock Everyone in Iowa!

Rand Paul is About to Shock Everyone in Iowa!

"It seems like just yesterday that many news networks were cheerfully mourning the end of Rand Paul‘s 2016 presidential campaign. However, it may be the case for Paul that the Iowa Caucuses serve not as a beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning.

The election thus far has seen numerous twists and turns, not the least of which have occurred in Iowa. In July and August, Scott Walker was at the top of the pack in the Hawkeye State, only to crater in the polls and withdraw from the race altogether in September.

Since that point, Iowa polls have been mostly dominated by Donald Trump, who has faced challenges of varying degrees from Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio.

However, more than any campaign in history, 2016 has drawn attention to flaws in polling techniques. This is amplified in caucus states in Iowa, where numerous factors other than mere preferences come into play.

As well-known pollster and statistician Nate Silver has pointed out, some polls are very “loose” in screening who they poll. Silver points out that this leads to polls like one conducted by CNN which predicts a voter turnout in the Iowa Republican caucuses of about 320,000 — more than double the 121,000 turnout in 2012."

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